Success Quote by Warren Buffett

Buffett’s line lands like a quiet rebuke to modern life’s favorite crutch: the comforting authority of numbers. In markets, politics, and corporate boardrooms, polls are treated as reality itself, a slick proxy for judgment. Buffett strips that illusion down to its mechanics. A poll can tell you what a crowd believes at a moment in time; it cannot tell you whether the crowd is right, whether the question was framed to manufacture consensus, or whether the underlying incentives are rotten. The “no substitute” phrasing matters: he’s not dismissing data, he’s demoting it. Polls are inputs, not intellect.

The subtext is classic Buffett: independence is a competitive advantage. His investing legend is built on resisting social proof, buying when sentiment looks foolish, ignoring the emotional weather report. Read this way, the quote is less about skepticism and more about responsibility. “Thought” is work: forming a model, interrogating assumptions, living with uncertainty. A poll lets you outsource that discomfort to a bar chart.

There’s also a warning about the moral escape hatch polls provide. If everyone thinks it, then no one is accountable for thinking it. Buffett calls out the way “public opinion” becomes a shield for leaders who want permission rather than truth.

Contextually, it fits a businessman who has watched crowds misprice assets, overreact to headlines, and mistake popularity for value. Polls are excellent at measuring mood. Buffett is insisting you measure substance.