"Alan White and I spent the next two or three years working together on this. We developed what is known a stochastic volatility model. This is a model where the volatility as well as the underlying asset price moves around in an unpredictable way"
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Hull’s phrasing lands with the understated confidence of someone describing a quiet revolution in finance as if it were a long lab session with a colleague. “Alan White and I spent the next two or three years” foregrounds process over flash: not a lone-genius breakthrough, but the slow grind of turning messy market behavior into something you can compute, teach, and defend. The time span matters. It signals that the model wasn’t a clever tweak; it took sustained attention to make the math behave and the intuition cohere.
The key move is rhetorical and conceptual: volatility is no longer a fixed input you plug in; it becomes a living variable with its own erratic life. Hull’s plain-language “moves around in an unpredictable way” is doing strategic work. It domesticate a hard idea (random volatility dynamics) into an almost tactile image, while quietly rebuking the clean certainty promised by earlier models. The subtext is a concession and a claim at once: markets can’t be made deterministic, but they can be modeled in ways that respect their instability.
The context is the long hangover from Black-Scholes’s elegance. Practitioners watched implied volatility smiles and term structures mock the assumption of constant volatility; academics responded by letting volatility itself fluctuate. Hull frames stochastic volatility as a realism upgrade: not perfect foresight, but a better map of risk, one that legitimizes uncertainty rather than smoothing it away. In a field obsessed with precision, the sentence’s modesty is the point: you don’t conquer randomness; you learn to price around it.
The key move is rhetorical and conceptual: volatility is no longer a fixed input you plug in; it becomes a living variable with its own erratic life. Hull’s plain-language “moves around in an unpredictable way” is doing strategic work. It domesticate a hard idea (random volatility dynamics) into an almost tactile image, while quietly rebuking the clean certainty promised by earlier models. The subtext is a concession and a claim at once: markets can’t be made deterministic, but they can be modeled in ways that respect their instability.
The context is the long hangover from Black-Scholes’s elegance. Practitioners watched implied volatility smiles and term structures mock the assumption of constant volatility; academics responded by letting volatility itself fluctuate. Hull frames stochastic volatility as a realism upgrade: not perfect foresight, but a better map of risk, one that legitimizes uncertainty rather than smoothing it away. In a field obsessed with precision, the sentence’s modesty is the point: you don’t conquer randomness; you learn to price around it.
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| Topic | Investment |
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