"Expert: a man who makes three correct guesses consecutively"

Laurence J. Peter’s wry definition of an expert as “a man who makes three correct guesses consecutively” offers a satirical yet incisive commentary on the nature of expertise and public perception. Rather than equating expertise with deep knowledge, years of study, or technical skill, Peter points out how often the label is applied based on little more than a brief streak of apparent success, essentially, luck that coincides with favorable outcomes. The implication is that acclaim, authority, and trust are sometimes given not through rigorous evaluation of someone’s understanding or abilities, but because they have managed, temporarily, to appear right in the eyes of others.

This perspective highlights the arbitrariness with which society can sometimes bestow the status of “expert.” It questions the reliability of credentials that might be founded on limited achievement rather than sustained performance or genuine comprehension. Peter’s quote urges skepticism about confident forecasts, especially in complex or unpredictable fields like finance, politics, or technology, where even the best-informed predictions are subject to chance. A streak of correct guesses, however improbable, can quickly elevate an individual’s reputation, despite there being no guarantee that this accuracy will continue.

Moreover, Peter’s observation pokes fun at the human tendency to retrospectively ascribe brilliance to those who seem fortunate, conflating correlation with causation. People are drawn to success stories and often attribute them to innate genius or special insight, overlooking the role of randomness or external factors. True expertise often involves humility, continual learning, and adaptability, qualities that may not be visible during brief periods of success. By calling attention to how easily someone can be seen as an authority through mere coincidence, Peter subtly advocates for a more critical and discerning approach to evaluating expertise, reminding us that credibility should rest on more than a lucky streak.