"For the progress of scientific knowledge will lead to a constant increase of expenditure"
About this Quote
Cobden, the free-trade tribune and scourge of militarism, saw a paradox at the heart of modernity. As knowledge advances, costs do not necessarily fall; in the affairs of states, especially in war, they often rise. He wrote amid the transition from wooden sailing fleets to steam-powered, ironclad navies and rifled artillery. Each scientific improvement rendered existing arsenals obsolete and compelled governments to rebuild at great expense. Progress did not yield a one-time saving; it set in motion a rolling obligation, a treadmill on which budgets must run faster just to avoid falling behind.
The logic is not merely technological but institutional. Military procurement seeks superiority, not sufficiency, and there is no competitive market disciplining the buyer. New systems are capital intensive, bespoke, and complex, demanding specialized skills, dockyards, research bureaus, and continual upgrades. Depreciation cycles shorten as innovation accelerates, so sunk costs are written off sooner, and taxpayers absorb the bill. Fear magnifies the dynamic: when rival powers innovate, governments invoke security to justify the next round of spending, turning scientific discovery into an arms race.
Cobden’s warning was not a rejection of science. He championed progress in commerce and industry precisely because competitive exchange tends to translate knowledge into lower prices and wider prosperity. His caution targeted the political economy of the state, where the incentives and accounting differ. Knowledge expands capabilities, but it also raises expectations of what governments should provide and protect. Without rigorous scrutiny, the promise of science becomes a pretext for permanent escalations in public expenditure.
The pattern he described has endured, from dreadnoughts to nuclear deterrence and, today, cyber defense, space systems, and AI-enabled surveillance. Cobden urges a fiscal realism: measure gains against opportunity costs; resist panic and prestige spending; build institutions that convert discovery into productivity rather than into an unending bill. Progress should enlarge freedom, not shackle societies to ever-rising burdens.
The logic is not merely technological but institutional. Military procurement seeks superiority, not sufficiency, and there is no competitive market disciplining the buyer. New systems are capital intensive, bespoke, and complex, demanding specialized skills, dockyards, research bureaus, and continual upgrades. Depreciation cycles shorten as innovation accelerates, so sunk costs are written off sooner, and taxpayers absorb the bill. Fear magnifies the dynamic: when rival powers innovate, governments invoke security to justify the next round of spending, turning scientific discovery into an arms race.
Cobden’s warning was not a rejection of science. He championed progress in commerce and industry precisely because competitive exchange tends to translate knowledge into lower prices and wider prosperity. His caution targeted the political economy of the state, where the incentives and accounting differ. Knowledge expands capabilities, but it also raises expectations of what governments should provide and protect. Without rigorous scrutiny, the promise of science becomes a pretext for permanent escalations in public expenditure.
The pattern he described has endured, from dreadnoughts to nuclear deterrence and, today, cyber defense, space systems, and AI-enabled surveillance. Cobden urges a fiscal realism: measure gains against opportunity costs; resist panic and prestige spending; build institutions that convert discovery into productivity rather than into an unending bill. Progress should enlarge freedom, not shackle societies to ever-rising burdens.
Quote Details
| Topic | Science |
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