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Justice & Law Quote by David R. Ellis

"Fourth Law of Thermodynamics: If the probability of success is not almost one, then it is damn near zero"

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Ellis borrows the gravitas of physics to smuggle in a brutal entertainment-industry truth: most projects don’t fail by inches, they fail by default. Calling it a “Fourth Law of Thermodynamics” is the tell. Thermodynamics is the realm of non-negotiable constraints, where wishing doesn’t matter. By stapling his maxim to that language, Ellis frames creative work not as romantic risk-taking but as an engineering problem with unforgiving tolerances.

The punchline sits in the math-shaped cynicism: if success isn’t “almost one,” it’s “damn near zero.” That’s not literal probability; it’s a way of describing how gatekept, capital-heavy fields behave. In filmmaking, tiny deficits compound. A script that’s merely good, a lead who’s not quite right, a budget that’s slightly underpowered, a marketing plan that’s late by a week: each “almost” multiplies into collapse. The industry’s selection process is so ruthless that viability requires overdetermination. You don’t need one lucky break; you need a stack of them, all aligned.

Subtextually, Ellis is also managing morale. The profanity (“damn near”) punctures any pretension and signals shop-floor realism: this is a director talking to other workers in the trenches, not a motivational speaker. The intent isn’t to discourage ambition but to demand seriousness about inputs: raise the odds everywhere you can, because the system won’t reward “pretty close.” It’s a warning disguised as a joke, the kind professionals use to survive.

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APA Style (7th ed.)
Ellis, David R. (n.d.). Fourth Law of Thermodynamics: If the probability of success is not almost one, then it is damn near zero. FixQuotes. https://fixquotes.com/quotes/fourth-law-of-thermodynamics-if-the-probability-55649/

Chicago Style
Ellis, David R. "Fourth Law of Thermodynamics: If the probability of success is not almost one, then it is damn near zero." FixQuotes. Accessed February 1, 2026. https://fixquotes.com/quotes/fourth-law-of-thermodynamics-if-the-probability-55649/.

MLA Style (9th ed.)
"Fourth Law of Thermodynamics: If the probability of success is not almost one, then it is damn near zero." FixQuotes, https://fixquotes.com/quotes/fourth-law-of-thermodynamics-if-the-probability-55649/. Accessed 1 Feb. 2026.

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David R. Ellis (September 8, 1952 - January 7, 2013) was a Director from USA.

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