"Fourth Law of Thermodynamics: If the probability of success is not almost one, then it is damn near zero"
About this Quote
The punchline sits in the math-shaped cynicism: if success isn’t “almost one,” it’s “damn near zero.” That’s not literal probability; it’s a way of describing how gatekept, capital-heavy fields behave. In filmmaking, tiny deficits compound. A script that’s merely good, a lead who’s not quite right, a budget that’s slightly underpowered, a marketing plan that’s late by a week: each “almost” multiplies into collapse. The industry’s selection process is so ruthless that viability requires overdetermination. You don’t need one lucky break; you need a stack of them, all aligned.
Subtextually, Ellis is also managing morale. The profanity (“damn near”) punctures any pretension and signals shop-floor realism: this is a director talking to other workers in the trenches, not a motivational speaker. The intent isn’t to discourage ambition but to demand seriousness about inputs: raise the odds everywhere you can, because the system won’t reward “pretty close.” It’s a warning disguised as a joke, the kind professionals use to survive.
Quote Details
| Topic | Success |
|---|---|
| Source | Help us find the source |
| Cite | Cite this Quote |
Citation Formats
APA Style (7th ed.)
Ellis, David R. (n.d.). Fourth Law of Thermodynamics: If the probability of success is not almost one, then it is damn near zero. FixQuotes. https://fixquotes.com/quotes/fourth-law-of-thermodynamics-if-the-probability-55649/
Chicago Style
Ellis, David R. "Fourth Law of Thermodynamics: If the probability of success is not almost one, then it is damn near zero." FixQuotes. Accessed February 1, 2026. https://fixquotes.com/quotes/fourth-law-of-thermodynamics-if-the-probability-55649/.
MLA Style (9th ed.)
"Fourth Law of Thermodynamics: If the probability of success is not almost one, then it is damn near zero." FixQuotes, https://fixquotes.com/quotes/fourth-law-of-thermodynamics-if-the-probability-55649/. Accessed 1 Feb. 2026.







