"However, the models also predict unambiguously that the atmosphere is warming faster than the surface of the earth; but all the available observational data unambiguously shows the opposite!"
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Douglass’s line is engineered to sound like a clean scientific refutation: “unambiguously” repeated like a gavel, “models” versus “observational data” framed as a simple courtroom contrast. The intent isn’t to parse uncertainty; it’s to foreclose it. By insisting both sides are “unambiguous,” he strips away the messy middle where climate science actually lives - measurement limits, evolving datasets, and competing interpretations - and replaces it with a binary: the models are plainly wrong.
The subtext is rhetorical jiu-jitsu. “The atmosphere is warming faster than the surface” invokes a real expectation from greenhouse-driven warming: enhanced warming in the troposphere relative to the surface. But Douglass leverages a historically thorny issue: early satellite and radiosonde records did appear to show less tropospheric warming than models projected. In the 1990s and early 2000s, that mismatch became a favored wedge for contrarians, not because it toppled greenhouse physics, but because it was legible to non-experts as a scoreboard.
Context matters: those “available observational data” were not static. Subsequent reanalyses and corrections (orbital decay, instrument drift, changing radiosonde practices) narrowed much of the discrepancy, and model-observation comparisons became more nuanced (region, altitude band, time window). Douglass’s phrasing freezes a moving scientific debate into a definitive indictment. It’s less a physicist’s cautious claim than a polemical one: elevate a specific technical tension into a general verdict on climate modeling, and do it with the language of certainty.
The subtext is rhetorical jiu-jitsu. “The atmosphere is warming faster than the surface” invokes a real expectation from greenhouse-driven warming: enhanced warming in the troposphere relative to the surface. But Douglass leverages a historically thorny issue: early satellite and radiosonde records did appear to show less tropospheric warming than models projected. In the 1990s and early 2000s, that mismatch became a favored wedge for contrarians, not because it toppled greenhouse physics, but because it was legible to non-experts as a scoreboard.
Context matters: those “available observational data” were not static. Subsequent reanalyses and corrections (orbital decay, instrument drift, changing radiosonde practices) narrowed much of the discrepancy, and model-observation comparisons became more nuanced (region, altitude band, time window). Douglass’s phrasing freezes a moving scientific debate into a definitive indictment. It’s less a physicist’s cautious claim than a polemical one: elevate a specific technical tension into a general verdict on climate modeling, and do it with the language of certainty.
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| Topic | Science |
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