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Time & Perspective Quote by John C. Hull

"If each of your time steps is one week long, you are not modeling the stock price terribly well over a one-week time period, because you are saying that there are only two possible outcomes"

About this Quote

Hull is puncturing a comforting illusion: that a model built from tidy, discrete moves can pretend to be the messy, continuous churn of a real market. The line lands because it targets a quiet sleight of hand in many introductory finance setups - the binomial tree’s promise that complex price dynamics can be reduced to “up” or “down” at each step. If your step is a full week, that simplification stops being a harmless teaching device and starts becoming an assertion about reality: within that week, nothing meaningful happens except one of two endpoints.

The specific intent is methodological discipline. Hull is warning students and practitioners that time discretization is not just a technical detail; it’s a claim about uncertainty. Coarse steps erase path-dependence, volatility clustering, jumps, and the intraperiod whipsaws that matter for hedging and risk. A weekly binomial step doesn’t merely approximate badly; it changes the question from “What distribution of outcomes is plausible?” to “Which of two fates will occur?” - a narrowing that can make a model feel stable while quietly making it brittle.

The subtext is also institutional. Finance loves models that are computable, teachable, and easy to explain to committees. Hull, the professor-as-adult-in-the-room, reminds you that elegance can be a trap: the model’s clarity is purchased by amputating the market’s degrees of freedom.

Contextually, this sits inside the standard progression from binomial trees to continuous-time limits (Black-Scholes and beyond). The point isn’t “binomial is wrong”; it’s that resolution matters. If you want to speak about a week, you can’t model the week as a coin flip.

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TopicInvestment
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APA Style (7th ed.)
Hull, John C. (2026, January 16). If each of your time steps is one week long, you are not modeling the stock price terribly well over a one-week time period, because you are saying that there are only two possible outcomes. FixQuotes. https://fixquotes.com/quotes/if-each-of-your-time-steps-is-one-week-long-you-85895/

Chicago Style
Hull, John C. "If each of your time steps is one week long, you are not modeling the stock price terribly well over a one-week time period, because you are saying that there are only two possible outcomes." FixQuotes. January 16, 2026. https://fixquotes.com/quotes/if-each-of-your-time-steps-is-one-week-long-you-85895/.

MLA Style (9th ed.)
"If each of your time steps is one week long, you are not modeling the stock price terribly well over a one-week time period, because you are saying that there are only two possible outcomes." FixQuotes, 16 Jan. 2026, https://fixquotes.com/quotes/if-each-of-your-time-steps-is-one-week-long-you-85895/. Accessed 4 Mar. 2026.

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About the Author

John C. Hull

John C. Hull (born October 31, 1939) is a Professor from USA.

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