"If each of your time steps is one week long, you are not modeling the stock price terribly well over a one-week time period, because you are saying that there are only two possible outcomes"
About this Quote
Hull is puncturing a comforting illusion: that a model built from tidy, discrete moves can pretend to be the messy, continuous churn of a real market. The line lands because it targets a quiet sleight of hand in many introductory finance setups - the binomial tree’s promise that complex price dynamics can be reduced to “up” or “down” at each step. If your step is a full week, that simplification stops being a harmless teaching device and starts becoming an assertion about reality: within that week, nothing meaningful happens except one of two endpoints.
The specific intent is methodological discipline. Hull is warning students and practitioners that time discretization is not just a technical detail; it’s a claim about uncertainty. Coarse steps erase path-dependence, volatility clustering, jumps, and the intraperiod whipsaws that matter for hedging and risk. A weekly binomial step doesn’t merely approximate badly; it changes the question from “What distribution of outcomes is plausible?” to “Which of two fates will occur?” - a narrowing that can make a model feel stable while quietly making it brittle.
The subtext is also institutional. Finance loves models that are computable, teachable, and easy to explain to committees. Hull, the professor-as-adult-in-the-room, reminds you that elegance can be a trap: the model’s clarity is purchased by amputating the market’s degrees of freedom.
Contextually, this sits inside the standard progression from binomial trees to continuous-time limits (Black-Scholes and beyond). The point isn’t “binomial is wrong”; it’s that resolution matters. If you want to speak about a week, you can’t model the week as a coin flip.
The specific intent is methodological discipline. Hull is warning students and practitioners that time discretization is not just a technical detail; it’s a claim about uncertainty. Coarse steps erase path-dependence, volatility clustering, jumps, and the intraperiod whipsaws that matter for hedging and risk. A weekly binomial step doesn’t merely approximate badly; it changes the question from “What distribution of outcomes is plausible?” to “Which of two fates will occur?” - a narrowing that can make a model feel stable while quietly making it brittle.
The subtext is also institutional. Finance loves models that are computable, teachable, and easy to explain to committees. Hull, the professor-as-adult-in-the-room, reminds you that elegance can be a trap: the model’s clarity is purchased by amputating the market’s degrees of freedom.
Contextually, this sits inside the standard progression from binomial trees to continuous-time limits (Black-Scholes and beyond). The point isn’t “binomial is wrong”; it’s that resolution matters. If you want to speak about a week, you can’t model the week as a coin flip.
Quote Details
| Topic | Investment |
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