"In the financial system we have today, with less risk concentrated in banks, the probability of systemic financial crises may be lower than in traditional bank-centered financial systems"
About this Quote
Geithner’s sentence does the classic crisis-manager two-step: reassure without promising, diagnose without indicting. The phrasing is bureaucratically careful, but the intent is clear. After 2008, the core political project of financial governance became proving that the next meltdown wouldn’t look like the last one. “Less risk concentrated in banks” is a victory lap for post-crisis reforms aimed at capital requirements, stress tests, and tighter oversight. It’s also an argument for legitimacy: the system has changed, regulators learned, the guardrails are sturdier.
The subtext is where the tension lives. Risk hasn’t disappeared; it has migrated. By framing the shift as “less concentrated in banks,” Geithner implicitly nods to the growth of nonbank finance - shadow banking, asset managers, private credit, money market funds - without saying the quiet part out loud: dispersion can lower the odds of one catastrophic bank run while increasing the odds of smaller, harder-to-see failures cascading through markets. His hedge, “may be lower,” is doing heavy lifting. It’s a public servant’s way of conceding uncertainty in a system that rewards certainty right up until it collapses.
Context matters: Geithner, as Treasury Secretary in the Obama years, is defending a regulatory strategy premised on making big banks safer rather than shrinking finance’s footprint. The quote is persuasive because it offers a plausible mechanism (concentration breeds contagion) while keeping the moral temperature low. It’s not a critique of finance so much as a stabilization narrative: the architecture is different now, so panic should be, too.
The subtext is where the tension lives. Risk hasn’t disappeared; it has migrated. By framing the shift as “less concentrated in banks,” Geithner implicitly nods to the growth of nonbank finance - shadow banking, asset managers, private credit, money market funds - without saying the quiet part out loud: dispersion can lower the odds of one catastrophic bank run while increasing the odds of smaller, harder-to-see failures cascading through markets. His hedge, “may be lower,” is doing heavy lifting. It’s a public servant’s way of conceding uncertainty in a system that rewards certainty right up until it collapses.
Context matters: Geithner, as Treasury Secretary in the Obama years, is defending a regulatory strategy premised on making big banks safer rather than shrinking finance’s footprint. The quote is persuasive because it offers a plausible mechanism (concentration breeds contagion) while keeping the moral temperature low. It’s not a critique of finance so much as a stabilization narrative: the architecture is different now, so panic should be, too.
Quote Details
| Topic | Money |
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