"It will be quite satisfactory if you open them gradually, as the circumstances may require; but the President assures you that this will not be the case if you make a treaty with England first"
About this Quote
A threat dressed up as customer service, Townsend Harris offers “gradual” opening like a concession while making sure Japan hears the real message: you don’t control the timetable, and you definitely don’t control the alternative.
Harris, a businessman turned diplomat, is negotiating in the shadow of gunboat diplomacy and great-power musical chairs. The line hinges on a conditional that isn’t conditional at all. “As the circumstances may require” pretends to respect local sovereignty and practical realities; it’s the language of flexibility, the kind that sounds reasonable in a ledger or a contract. Then comes the trapdoor: “the President assures you that this will not be the case if you make a treaty with England first.” The phrase “will not be the case” quietly rewrites the offer. Gradualism is framed as an option only if Japan chooses America now. If Japan signs with Britain, the tempo changes - and the listener is meant to supply the missing words: faster, harsher, imposed.
The subtext is strategic jealousy disguised as benevolent guidance. Harris is essentially saying: pick us, and you’ll get a managed transition; pick them, and you’ll get consequences. It’s not just about trade access, but about who gets to set the precedent for how Japan is incorporated into a Western-dominated system of treaties, tariffs, and extraterritorial privileges.
What makes it work is its plausible deniability. It never explicitly threatens force, yet it weaponizes uncertainty. Harris turns diplomacy into a market ultimatum: sign with our brand first, or discover what “circumstances” really means.
Harris, a businessman turned diplomat, is negotiating in the shadow of gunboat diplomacy and great-power musical chairs. The line hinges on a conditional that isn’t conditional at all. “As the circumstances may require” pretends to respect local sovereignty and practical realities; it’s the language of flexibility, the kind that sounds reasonable in a ledger or a contract. Then comes the trapdoor: “the President assures you that this will not be the case if you make a treaty with England first.” The phrase “will not be the case” quietly rewrites the offer. Gradualism is framed as an option only if Japan chooses America now. If Japan signs with Britain, the tempo changes - and the listener is meant to supply the missing words: faster, harsher, imposed.
The subtext is strategic jealousy disguised as benevolent guidance. Harris is essentially saying: pick us, and you’ll get a managed transition; pick them, and you’ll get consequences. It’s not just about trade access, but about who gets to set the precedent for how Japan is incorporated into a Western-dominated system of treaties, tariffs, and extraterritorial privileges.
What makes it work is its plausible deniability. It never explicitly threatens force, yet it weaponizes uncertainty. Harris turns diplomacy into a market ultimatum: sign with our brand first, or discover what “circumstances” really means.
Quote Details
| Topic | Peace |
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