Wealth & Money Quote by Toshihiko Fukui

A mild sentence with an alarm bell hidden inside it. Fukui is talking like a central banker, but the message is a warning drawn from a national scar: Japan’s long slide into deflation and stagnation after the asset bubble burst. The key phrase is “over a fairly long period,” which reads like technocratic caution yet functions as a rebuke to policy-making that declares victory the moment inflation hits target for a quarter or two.

The intent is procedural and political at once. Procedurally, he’s arguing that “price stability” can’t be treated as a snapshot; it’s a regime condition. Japan, especially from the 1990s through the 2000s, repeatedly flirted with stable prices while the underlying dynamics (weak demand, deleveraging, anchored low inflation expectations, a fragile banking system) kept pulling the economy back toward disinflation. You could hit “stability” and still be trapped.

The subtext is also about credibility. Central banks “have emphasized” long-horizon sustainability, he notes, quietly placing Japan in the role of cautionary exhibit. It’s an appeal to humility: the data can flatter you in the short run, and the public can lose faith in the long run if stability proves temporary. For Fukui, a public servant steeped in the Bank of Japan’s institutional battles, this is a way of saying that the real target isn’t just today’s CPI print; it’s whether expectations, wages, and growth can support stability without extraordinary support.

Context matters: post-bubble Japan became the case study for how hard it is to escape low inflation once it becomes normal. Fukui’s restraint is the point. The understatement carries the weight.