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Science & Tech Quote by William Osler

"Medicine is a science of uncertainty and an art of probability"

About this Quote

Osler’s line is a controlled demolition of medicine’s most marketable myth: that it delivers certainty. Coming from a late-19th-century physician who helped professionalize modern clinical training, it’s not anti-science; it’s a defense of scientific humility at the bedside. He’s reminding both doctors and patients that the body is not a clean laboratory system and that clinical truth arrives with margins of error, incomplete histories, and messy human variation.

“Science of uncertainty” sounds like a paradox, and that’s the point. Osler is taking the authority of science and welding it to doubt, turning skepticism into a virtue rather than a failure. The subtext is ethical: if medicine is drenched in uncertainty, arrogance becomes malpractice’s quiet cousin. This is also a rebuke to the era’s rising faith in diagnostic gadgets and germ theory as cure-alls. Osler admired those advances, but he understood how quickly innovation can become theater, how easily patients confuse new tools with omniscience.

Then comes the second blade: “art of probability.” Art here isn’t decoration; it’s judgment under pressure. Probability is the true currency of clinical work: differential diagnoses, risk-benefit tradeoffs, and treatment choices made with imperfect information. Osler frames medicine as disciplined forecasting, not prophecy. It’s a line that still reads like a critique of today’s algorithmic confidence: models can sharpen probabilities, but they can’t abolish uncertainty, and they can’t replace the clinician’s responsibility for making a call when the data won’t.

Quote Details

TopicDoctor
SourceWilliam Osler, "Aequanimitas" (essay), in Aequanimitas and Other Addresses, 1904 — contains the line "Medicine is a science of uncertainty and an art of probability".
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Citation Formats

APA Style (7th ed.)
Osler, William. (2026, January 15). Medicine is a science of uncertainty and an art of probability. FixQuotes. https://fixquotes.com/quotes/medicine-is-a-science-of-uncertainty-and-an-art-92493/

Chicago Style
Osler, William. "Medicine is a science of uncertainty and an art of probability." FixQuotes. January 15, 2026. https://fixquotes.com/quotes/medicine-is-a-science-of-uncertainty-and-an-art-92493/.

MLA Style (9th ed.)
"Medicine is a science of uncertainty and an art of probability." FixQuotes, 15 Jan. 2026, https://fixquotes.com/quotes/medicine-is-a-science-of-uncertainty-and-an-art-92493/. Accessed 12 Feb. 2026.

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About the Author

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William Osler (July 12, 1849 - December 29, 1919) was a Scientist from Canada.

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