"Medicine is a science of uncertainty and an art of probability"
About this Quote
“Science of uncertainty” sounds like a paradox, and that’s the point. Osler is taking the authority of science and welding it to doubt, turning skepticism into a virtue rather than a failure. The subtext is ethical: if medicine is drenched in uncertainty, arrogance becomes malpractice’s quiet cousin. This is also a rebuke to the era’s rising faith in diagnostic gadgets and germ theory as cure-alls. Osler admired those advances, but he understood how quickly innovation can become theater, how easily patients confuse new tools with omniscience.
Then comes the second blade: “art of probability.” Art here isn’t decoration; it’s judgment under pressure. Probability is the true currency of clinical work: differential diagnoses, risk-benefit tradeoffs, and treatment choices made with imperfect information. Osler frames medicine as disciplined forecasting, not prophecy. It’s a line that still reads like a critique of today’s algorithmic confidence: models can sharpen probabilities, but they can’t abolish uncertainty, and they can’t replace the clinician’s responsibility for making a call when the data won’t.
Quote Details
| Topic | Doctor |
|---|---|
| Source | William Osler, "Aequanimitas" (essay), in Aequanimitas and Other Addresses, 1904 — contains the line "Medicine is a science of uncertainty and an art of probability". |
| Cite |
Citation Formats
APA Style (7th ed.)
Osler, William. (2026, January 15). Medicine is a science of uncertainty and an art of probability. FixQuotes. https://fixquotes.com/quotes/medicine-is-a-science-of-uncertainty-and-an-art-92493/
Chicago Style
Osler, William. "Medicine is a science of uncertainty and an art of probability." FixQuotes. January 15, 2026. https://fixquotes.com/quotes/medicine-is-a-science-of-uncertainty-and-an-art-92493/.
MLA Style (9th ed.)
"Medicine is a science of uncertainty and an art of probability." FixQuotes, 15 Jan. 2026, https://fixquotes.com/quotes/medicine-is-a-science-of-uncertainty-and-an-art-92493/. Accessed 12 Feb. 2026.







