"Natural selection is a mechanism for generating an exceedingly high degree of improbability"
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Fisher’s line is a neat little provocation: it sounds like he’s accusing Darwinism of doing the impossible, then quietly reveals that “impossible” is exactly the point. In everyday speech, improbability is what you get when reality fails to behave. In Fisher’s hands, improbability is the output of a lawful process. Natural selection doesn’t merely “adapt” organisms; it manufactures outcomes so statistically unlikely that, without a mechanism, you’d be tempted to smuggle in design, destiny, or miracle.
The intent is characteristically Fisher: to translate a biological story into the language of distributions, likelihoods, and accumulation. Selection, acting repeatedly over vast time, is a ratchet that keeps the rare successes and discards the rest. A single complex feature looks like an absurd fluke; a long sequence of small, biased steps makes that fluke not just plausible but expected. His phrasing flatters the mathematician’s sensibility: the wonder isn’t that nature is chaotic, it’s that nature can systematically climb probability gradients until it lands in places that look, to a casual observer, like winning the cosmic lottery.
The subtext also pushes back against sloppy evolution talk. “Survival of the fittest” can sound like a tautology or a just-so story. Fisher reframes it as an engine for generating extreme order under constraints, the kind of order that strains intuition because our intuitions are calibrated to single events, not iterative filtering across populations.
Context matters: Fisher helped found population genetics, giving Darwin’s idea a quantitative backbone. This sentence is a compact advertisement for that project: if you want to understand life’s strangeness, bring math.
The intent is characteristically Fisher: to translate a biological story into the language of distributions, likelihoods, and accumulation. Selection, acting repeatedly over vast time, is a ratchet that keeps the rare successes and discards the rest. A single complex feature looks like an absurd fluke; a long sequence of small, biased steps makes that fluke not just plausible but expected. His phrasing flatters the mathematician’s sensibility: the wonder isn’t that nature is chaotic, it’s that nature can systematically climb probability gradients until it lands in places that look, to a casual observer, like winning the cosmic lottery.
The subtext also pushes back against sloppy evolution talk. “Survival of the fittest” can sound like a tautology or a just-so story. Fisher reframes it as an engine for generating extreme order under constraints, the kind of order that strains intuition because our intuitions are calibrated to single events, not iterative filtering across populations.
Context matters: Fisher helped found population genetics, giving Darwin’s idea a quantitative backbone. This sentence is a compact advertisement for that project: if you want to understand life’s strangeness, bring math.
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| Topic | Science |
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