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Daily Inspiration Quote by John C. Hull

"Our research led on to other things, such as the fact that exchange rates are not lognormally distributed"

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There is a deliciously deadpan humility baked into Hull's line: the punchline is that the most important result of "research" is often discovering your most cherished assumption is wrong. In quantitative finance, lognormality is the comfort blanket. It makes prices behave nicely, keeps volatility tractable, and lets elegant formulas (hello, Black-Scholes) pretend the market is a well-behaved physics problem. Hull is tugging that blanket away with the calm tone of someone who has done it a hundred times and knows the room will still gasp.

The intent is pedagogical, but the subtext is a quiet rebuke to model worship. By framing a major empirical failure as an incidental "such as", he normalizes a core reality of the field: markets have fat tails, skew, jumps, crashes, and the kind of correlation breakdowns that only show up when it matters. The academic dryness is part of the strategy. He doesn't need to dramatize it because practitioners already know what "not lognormally distributed" means in human terms: risk managers get fired, hedges leak, and "once in a thousand years" events arrive on a quarterly schedule.

Context matters here. Hull is a finance professor best known for turning messy derivatives theory into teachable structure. This line reads like a wink from inside the curriculum: yes, we start with clean distributions to build intuition; no, you don't get to stop there. The sophistication isn't in memorizing the model. It's in noticing where reality refuses to cooperate, and building systems that survive that refusal.

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TopicMoney
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Hull: Exchange Rates Are Not Lognormal
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John C. Hull

John C. Hull (born October 31, 1939) is a Professor from USA.

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