"Prediction is very difficult, especially if it's about the future"
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Bohr’s line lands like a deadpan pratfall from a man whose job description was, essentially, “explain the future of matter.” The joke hinges on a tautology: of course prediction is about the future. By stating the obvious, he exposes the arrogance hidden inside our confidence. It’s not just that forecasting is hard; it’s that we routinely forget what we’re doing when we forecast at all: translating messy reality into a tidy story that can survive contact with tomorrow.
Coming from a physicist who helped found quantum mechanics, the subtext sharpens. Bohr lived in a world where certainty had to be renegotiated at the atomic level, where observation changes what’s observed, and where probability is not a temporary placeholder for ignorance but a basic feature of the system. So the quip isn’t anti-intellectual; it’s anti-overreach. It mocks the human impulse to treat models as mirrors rather than tools.
The line also works because it hits beyond physics. “Prediction” is the modern fetish: markets, elections, product launches, pandemics. We dress guesses up in dashboards and confidence intervals, then act surprised when reality behaves like reality. Bohr’s humor is a warning label: humility is not a personality trait, it’s an operating system. If even the people who measure the universe for a living are wary of the future, everyone else should be too.
Coming from a physicist who helped found quantum mechanics, the subtext sharpens. Bohr lived in a world where certainty had to be renegotiated at the atomic level, where observation changes what’s observed, and where probability is not a temporary placeholder for ignorance but a basic feature of the system. So the quip isn’t anti-intellectual; it’s anti-overreach. It mocks the human impulse to treat models as mirrors rather than tools.
The line also works because it hits beyond physics. “Prediction” is the modern fetish: markets, elections, product launches, pandemics. We dress guesses up in dashboards and confidence intervals, then act surprised when reality behaves like reality. Bohr’s humor is a warning label: humility is not a personality trait, it’s an operating system. If even the people who measure the universe for a living are wary of the future, everyone else should be too.
Quote Details
| Topic | Wisdom |
|---|---|
| Source | Later attribution: Making Sense of Chaos (J. Doyne Farmer, 2024) modern compilationISBN: 9780241201985 · ID: ZyvNEAAAQBAJ
Evidence: ... Niels Bohr is said to have declared that ' prediction is very difficult , especially if it's about the future ' . This remark seems ironic ; aren't all predictions about the future ? Actually , no , not at all . Consider Boyle's Law ... Other candidates (1) Niels Bohr (Niels Bohr) compilation36.3% e grand discoveries which scientific experiment yielded at and about the turn of |
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