"Sometimes the probabilities are very close to certainties, but they're never really certainties"
About this Quote
The intent is partly epistemic humility, partly a warning about how people misread science. Scientists don’t typically trade in proof the way geometry does; they trade in models, error bars, and confidence that is earned, not declared. Saying “never really certainties” isn’t coyness. It’s an insistence that knowledge in the physical world is contingent on measurement, assumptions, and the possibility of unseen variables. That’s as true in quantum mechanics, where indeterminacy is fundamental, as it is in complex systems, where near-certainty can be an artifact of incomplete accounting.
The subtext is also cultural: modern life runs on probabilistic outputs sold as determinate truths, from risk forecasts to medical odds to algorithmic “predictions.” Gell-Mann’s line punctures the authoritarian tone we often project onto numbers. It reminds you that certainty is a rhetorical posture, not a scientific result.
Context matters: coming from a physicist who mapped the invisible architecture of matter, it reads like a paradox with teeth. The closer you get to the foundations, the more you learn that “almost sure” is still not “sure.”
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Citation Formats
APA Style (7th ed.)
Gell-Mann, Murray. (2026, January 17). Sometimes the probabilities are very close to certainties, but they're never really certainties. FixQuotes. https://fixquotes.com/quotes/sometimes-the-probabilities-are-very-close-to-28068/
Chicago Style
Gell-Mann, Murray. "Sometimes the probabilities are very close to certainties, but they're never really certainties." FixQuotes. January 17, 2026. https://fixquotes.com/quotes/sometimes-the-probabilities-are-very-close-to-28068/.
MLA Style (9th ed.)
"Sometimes the probabilities are very close to certainties, but they're never really certainties." FixQuotes, 17 Jan. 2026, https://fixquotes.com/quotes/sometimes-the-probabilities-are-very-close-to-28068/. Accessed 12 Feb. 2026.









