"Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau"
About this Quote
Nothing dates faster than confidence dressed up as permanence. Irving Fisher's "permanently high plateau" line has survived less as analysis than as a fossil of elite overreach, uttered days before the 1929 crash detonated the Roaring Twenties. The phrase works because it's not merely optimistic; it's institutional. Fisher wasn't a boiler-room hype man. He was a premier economist, a public intellectual with academic authority and a talent for translating complex markets into soothing narratives. When he says "what looks like", he slips in a lawyerly hedge, but the headline-grabbing core is "permanently" - a word that tries to freeze a volatile system into a stable picture.
The subtext is the era's faith that modern finance had evolved beyond old boom-bust cycles: scientific management, the Federal Reserve, productivity gains, mass consumer credit. Fisher channels a technocratic dream that risk can be priced, smoothed, essentially engineered away. It's the same rhetorical move you hear whenever a new tool - leveraged ETFs, housing securitization, crypto, AI - is framed not as speculation but as progress.
Context sharpens the irony: Fisher would lose much of his fortune and spend years defending his position. The quote endures because it captures a recurring cultural reflex: markets rise, narratives harden, and credibility becomes accelerant. "Permanently high" isn't just a forecast; it's a permission slip, inviting investors and the broader public to stop imagining downside. That's why it lands as both tragic and darkly comic: the moment expertise mistakes a trend for a law of nature.
The subtext is the era's faith that modern finance had evolved beyond old boom-bust cycles: scientific management, the Federal Reserve, productivity gains, mass consumer credit. Fisher channels a technocratic dream that risk can be priced, smoothed, essentially engineered away. It's the same rhetorical move you hear whenever a new tool - leveraged ETFs, housing securitization, crypto, AI - is framed not as speculation but as progress.
Context sharpens the irony: Fisher would lose much of his fortune and spend years defending his position. The quote endures because it captures a recurring cultural reflex: markets rise, narratives harden, and credibility becomes accelerant. "Permanently high" isn't just a forecast; it's a permission slip, inviting investors and the broader public to stop imagining downside. That's why it lands as both tragic and darkly comic: the moment expertise mistakes a trend for a law of nature.
Quote Details
| Topic | Investment |
|---|---|
| Source | Irving Fisher — biographical entry noting his widely cited 1929 pre-crash remark: "Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau." (Encyclopaedia Britannica entry on Irving Fisher.) |
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