"Supercomputers will achieve one human brain capacity by 2010, and personal computers will do so by about 2020"
About this Quote
The subtext is a familiar Silicon Valley move: translate qualitative human complexity into a quantitative milestone, then let exponential growth do the rhetorical heavy lifting. By splitting the timeline into “supercomputers” first and “personal computers” later, Kurzweil tells a comforting democratization story: today’s elite machinery becomes tomorrow’s consumer good. That’s not just about processing power; it’s a cultural promise that intelligence, and by extension power, will be downloadable and broadly accessible.
Context matters because the late-90s and early-2000s were peak Moore’s Law confidence, when progress looked like a smooth curve rather than a jagged history of breakthroughs, bottlenecks, and paradigm shifts. The prediction also sidesteps a key distinction: raw compute isn’t cognition. We’ve seen staggering gains in speed and storage, but “brain capacity” smuggles in assumptions about architecture, learning, embodiment, and consciousness that don’t scale the way transistors do.
Even as the dates missed in any literal sense, the line still “works” as cultural propaganda: it pressures institutions to invest, primes audiences to expect disruption, and frames skepticism as being on the wrong side of math.
Quote Details
| Topic | Artificial Intelligence |
|---|---|
| Source | Ray Kurzweil — prediction attributed in The Age of Spiritual Machines (1999): “Supercomputers will achieve one human brain capacity by 2010, and personal computers will do so by about 2020.” |
| Cite |
Citation Formats
APA Style (7th ed.)
Kurzweil, Ray. (2026, January 16). Supercomputers will achieve one human brain capacity by 2010, and personal computers will do so by about 2020. FixQuotes. https://fixquotes.com/quotes/supercomputers-will-achieve-one-human-brain-137212/
Chicago Style
Kurzweil, Ray. "Supercomputers will achieve one human brain capacity by 2010, and personal computers will do so by about 2020." FixQuotes. January 16, 2026. https://fixquotes.com/quotes/supercomputers-will-achieve-one-human-brain-137212/.
MLA Style (9th ed.)
"Supercomputers will achieve one human brain capacity by 2010, and personal computers will do so by about 2020." FixQuotes, 16 Jan. 2026, https://fixquotes.com/quotes/supercomputers-will-achieve-one-human-brain-137212/. Accessed 12 Feb. 2026.





