"The Dell Theory of Conflict Prevention argues that no two countries that are both part of the same global supply chain will ever fight a war as long as they are each part of that supply chain"
About this Quote
The subtext is more ambitious than it admits. “Supply chain” isn’t just logistics; it’s leverage. Friedman is arguing that economic entanglement can discipline nationalism, because the cost of breaking the chain is immediate and broadly shared: jobs vanish, markets panic, elites lose money, voters get angry. It’s an updated version of the old liberal promise that trade civilizes, stripped of poetry and replaced with corporate rationality.
The context matters: late-1990s/early-2000s triumphalism, when the Cold War had ended, China was becoming “the world’s factory,” and the West mistook integration for alignment. The theory’s confidence is also its tell. By insisting “no two countries…will ever fight,” it treats states like rational firms and downplays the things that routinely overpower economics: security fears, regime survival, ideology, miscalculation, humiliation, domestic politics.
What makes the line sticky is its seduction: it turns a messy, contingent peace into a neat rule you can remember at the checkout counter. The danger is the same neatness. When wars do happen inside global supply chains, the theory doesn’t just fail; it exposes how willing we were to outsource political judgment to the logic of commerce.
Quote Details
| Topic | Peace |
|---|---|
| Source | Help us find the source |
| Cite | Cite this Quote |
Citation Formats
APA Style (7th ed.)
Friedman, Thomas. (n.d.). The Dell Theory of Conflict Prevention argues that no two countries that are both part of the same global supply chain will ever fight a war as long as they are each part of that supply chain. FixQuotes. https://fixquotes.com/quotes/the-dell-theory-of-conflict-prevention-argues-166753/
Chicago Style
Friedman, Thomas. "The Dell Theory of Conflict Prevention argues that no two countries that are both part of the same global supply chain will ever fight a war as long as they are each part of that supply chain." FixQuotes. Accessed February 1, 2026. https://fixquotes.com/quotes/the-dell-theory-of-conflict-prevention-argues-166753/.
MLA Style (9th ed.)
"The Dell Theory of Conflict Prevention argues that no two countries that are both part of the same global supply chain will ever fight a war as long as they are each part of that supply chain." FixQuotes, https://fixquotes.com/quotes/the-dell-theory-of-conflict-prevention-argues-166753/. Accessed 1 Feb. 2026.






