"The Germans certainly - the intelligence service believed that there were WMD. It turns out that we were all wrong, probably in my judgment, and that is most disturbing"
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A scientist admitting failure on the record is rare; doing it while the machinery of war is still warm is almost alien. David Kay, the former chief UN weapons inspector tapped to lead the Iraq Survey Group, isn’t offering a tidy mea culpa. He’s sketching how an entire ecosystem of expertise can become a hall of mirrors.
The line about “The Germans certainly” is doing quiet work. It’s a reach for shared culpability, a way of saying: this wasn’t just Washington’s fever dream. By invoking a respected foreign intelligence service, Kay signals that the error was international and institutional, not merely partisan. The next move is even sharper: “It turns out that we were all wrong.” That “all” dilutes individual blame while widening the indictment. It also suggests something more unsettling than bad data: a consensus built on assumptions that felt safer than skepticism in a post-9/11 world.
The phrase “probably in my judgment” reads like scientific muscle memory. Even in confession, he hedges, preserving the posture of evidence-based caution. That’s the subtext: the culture of expertise doesn’t just produce facts; it produces calibrated language that can soften the landing of catastrophic mistakes.
“And that is most disturbing” lands because it’s understated. Kay isn’t emoting; he’s registering systemic failure. The disturbance isn’t simply that Iraq lacked WMD. It’s that the methods, incentives, and politics of intelligence made a false certainty feel like responsible prudence.
The line about “The Germans certainly” is doing quiet work. It’s a reach for shared culpability, a way of saying: this wasn’t just Washington’s fever dream. By invoking a respected foreign intelligence service, Kay signals that the error was international and institutional, not merely partisan. The next move is even sharper: “It turns out that we were all wrong.” That “all” dilutes individual blame while widening the indictment. It also suggests something more unsettling than bad data: a consensus built on assumptions that felt safer than skepticism in a post-9/11 world.
The phrase “probably in my judgment” reads like scientific muscle memory. Even in confession, he hedges, preserving the posture of evidence-based caution. That’s the subtext: the culture of expertise doesn’t just produce facts; it produces calibrated language that can soften the landing of catastrophic mistakes.
“And that is most disturbing” lands because it’s understated. Kay isn’t emoting; he’s registering systemic failure. The disturbance isn’t simply that Iraq lacked WMD. It’s that the methods, incentives, and politics of intelligence made a false certainty feel like responsible prudence.
Quote Details
| Topic | War |
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