"The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers"
About this Quote
Forecasting sells itself as sober math, but Fiedler reminds you it often runs on social psychology. The barb in “herd instinct” is that the biggest force shaping predictions isn’t data, it’s career risk. In a field where being wrong alone is professionally fatal and being wrong with everyone else is merely “unfortunate,” consensus becomes a kind of insurance policy. Calling forecasters less independent than sheep lands because it flips the usual metaphor: sheep are supposed to be the emblem of mindless following, yet forecasters, armed with models and credentials, can be even more conformity-driven.
The intent is not just to mock; it’s to expose an incentive structure. Forecasts aren’t produced in a vacuum. They’re made inside institutions that reward reputational safety, access, and credibility signals. That’s the subtext of “forecasters” rather than “economists”: he’s indicting a role in the public marketplace of certainty, where the pressure is to sound reasonable, not to be right. The cleanest way to sound reasonable is to echo the prevailing range.
Context matters. Fiedler’s lifetime spans the postwar rise of macroeconomic management, the prestige of econometrics, and repeated humiliations for the profession: oil shocks, stagflation, bubbles, crashes. Each episode revealed how quickly “expert” predictions converge, not because reality becomes clearer, but because deviation becomes socially expensive.
The line also reads as a warning to audiences. If forecasts cluster, don’t confuse agreement with accuracy; you may just be watching a well-mannered stampede.
The intent is not just to mock; it’s to expose an incentive structure. Forecasts aren’t produced in a vacuum. They’re made inside institutions that reward reputational safety, access, and credibility signals. That’s the subtext of “forecasters” rather than “economists”: he’s indicting a role in the public marketplace of certainty, where the pressure is to sound reasonable, not to be right. The cleanest way to sound reasonable is to echo the prevailing range.
Context matters. Fiedler’s lifetime spans the postwar rise of macroeconomic management, the prestige of econometrics, and repeated humiliations for the profession: oil shocks, stagflation, bubbles, crashes. Each episode revealed how quickly “expert” predictions converge, not because reality becomes clearer, but because deviation becomes socially expensive.
The line also reads as a warning to audiences. If forecasts cluster, don’t confuse agreement with accuracy; you may just be watching a well-mannered stampede.
Quote Details
| Topic | Witty One-Liners |
|---|
More Quotes by Edgar
Add to List
