"There is no direct evidence that nuclear weapons prevented a world war. Conversely, it is known that they nearly caused one"
About this Quote
Rotblat’s line works like a scientist’s scalpel aimed at a political myth: the comfortable story that the bomb “kept the peace.” He refuses the warm glow of deterrence theory and drags the argument back to standards of proof. “No direct evidence” is a deliberately clinical phrase, the kind you’d expect in a lab report, not a national-security sermon. It punctures a postwar consensus that treats nuclear weapons as a grim but rational stabilizer. Rotblat’s intent is to make the burden of proof visible: if you’re going to justify existential risk, you don’t get to rely on faith and hindsight.
The pivot, “Conversely,” is where the moral charge sneaks in under the cloak of empiricism. It sets up an asymmetry: the supposed benefit is speculative, but the danger is documented. “It is known” gestures toward real episodes - near-misses like the Cuban Missile Crisis, false alarms, accidents, misread signals - when human error and machine systems nearly turned deterrence into apocalypse. The subtext is brutal: nuclear peace isn’t a triumph of strategy; it’s a record of survived catastrophes.
Context matters. Rotblat wasn’t an armchair critic; he worked on the Manhattan Project and famously walked away when Germany’s bomb threat collapsed, then spent decades advocating disarmament (and later won the Nobel Peace Prize with Pugwash). That biography gives the quote its bite. It’s not naive idealism. It’s a witness statement: the bomb’s strongest “achievement” may be that we’re still here to argue about it.
The pivot, “Conversely,” is where the moral charge sneaks in under the cloak of empiricism. It sets up an asymmetry: the supposed benefit is speculative, but the danger is documented. “It is known” gestures toward real episodes - near-misses like the Cuban Missile Crisis, false alarms, accidents, misread signals - when human error and machine systems nearly turned deterrence into apocalypse. The subtext is brutal: nuclear peace isn’t a triumph of strategy; it’s a record of survived catastrophes.
Context matters. Rotblat wasn’t an armchair critic; he worked on the Manhattan Project and famously walked away when Germany’s bomb threat collapsed, then spent decades advocating disarmament (and later won the Nobel Peace Prize with Pugwash). That biography gives the quote its bite. It’s not naive idealism. It’s a witness statement: the bomb’s strongest “achievement” may be that we’re still here to argue about it.
Quote Details
| Topic | War |
|---|---|
| Source | Nobel Lecture, Joseph Rotblat, Nobel Peace Prize 1995 (official lecture text on NobelPrize.org). |
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