Time & Perspective Quote by Vince Cable

Forecasting is a power move, and Vince Cable punctures it with a single borrowed proverb. Set against his stint at Shell, the line is less humblebrag than confession: in corporate and political life, prediction often functions as authority theater. Executives and ministers don’t just want scenarios; they want reassurance, a story with a spine. Cable’s Arabic saying calls that bluff. It frames certainty about the future as a kind of performance bordering on fraud, and it does so with a neat trapdoor: even if the forecaster turns out right, the original claim to foresight was still dishonest.

The subtext is aimed at two cultures of confidence. In oil, forecasting is a tool for capital allocation and risk management, but it also lubricates decisions already half-made. In politics, “the plan” is sold as inevitability: projections about growth, jobs, and inflation become moral arguments dressed as data. Cable’s choice to cite an Arabic aphorism also matters. It smuggles in an older, non-Western skepticism toward prophecy, a reminder that uncertainty isn’t a bug in the model; it’s the basic condition.

What makes the line work is its asymmetry. It doesn’t say forecasts are useless. It says the social role of the forecaster rewards overclaiming. Cable is warning that when institutions demand certainty, they invite confident liars and punish honest probabilists. The real target isn’t the future; it’s our appetite to have it narrated.