"I had furthermore spoken on the assumption that Russia would mobilize, whereas the assumption of the German Government had hitherto been, officially, that Serbia would receive no support; and what I had said must influence the German Government to take the matter seriously"
About this Quote
This quote by Edward Grey sheds light on the complex diplomatic stress and mistakes leading up to World War I. Grey, who was the British Foreign Secretary at the time, reviews the presumptions and strategies held by the significant European powers in the middle of the July Crisis of 1914, which followed the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand of Austria.
Grey highlights two critical assumptions that influenced the unfolding events. First of all, he mentions his own presumption that Russia would mobilize in reaction to an Austro-Hungarian attack on Serbia. This reflects the network of alliances and entanglements that defined European diplomacy at the time. Russia, having Slavic ties and a protective stance towards Serbia, was expected by Grey to come to Serbia's defense, consequently intensifying a localized dispute into a wider one involving the significant powers.
Secondly, Grey contrasts his expectation with that of the German Government, which assumed that Serbia would stay unsupported. Germany, allied with Austria-Hungary, likely minimized the possibility of a broader dispute to prevent discouraging Austro-Hungarian assertiveness versus Serbia. This divergence in expectations is vital, as it highlights a substantial miscalculation by Germany concerning the potential for escalation.
When Grey notes that "what I had stated need to influence the German Government to take the matter seriously", he suggests that his discussions or interactions intended to signal Germany to the broader implications of their assistance for Austria-Hungary. By highlighting the risk of Russian mobilization, Grey looked for to influence German technique, advising them to reconsider their position and potentially avert a bigger dispute.
In essence, this quote encapsulates the precarious diplomatic situation of the time, where varying presumptions among the excellent powers added to the break out of World War I. It emphasizes the role of diplomatic interaction-- or do not have thereof-- in forming historic events and the terrible repercussions of misinterpretations and tactical errors.