"If history repeats itself, and the unexpected always happens, how incapable must Man be of learning from experience"

George Bernard Shaw’s observation draws attention to the paradox at the heart of human history and experience. He notes, with sardonic wit, that despite the cyclical nature of events and the frequent intrusion of surprise, humanity persistently fails to absorb the lessons these cycles provide. When history repeats itself, it often signals that past mistakes or triumphs are being echoed in the present. One might expect that having witnessed, and documented, such outcomes, people would be well-prepared to anticipate or avoid similar pitfalls. Yet, Shaw wryly points out, this rarely seems the case.

Complicating this is the fact that what actually occurs tends to veer into the unexpected. Even with extensive records, forecasts, and warnings, men are often caught off guard. This duality, repetition of the recognizable, coupled with the surprise of the unforeseen, highlights a fundamental ineptitude in our collective ability to learn. Shaw is not just condemning forgetfulness or ignorance, but questioning the deeper mechanisms that prevent societies and individuals from effectively internalizing the consequences of their actions.

There is an implicit criticism of arrogance as well, the belief that "this time" will be different, or that we are uniquely equipped to manage complexity in ways our predecessors were not. Shaw’s words urge humility, reminding us that the constant resurgence of old errors exposes the limits of human wisdom. Instead of growing wiser through cumulative experience, generations are often seduced by the same misjudgments, blinded by optimism, or resistant to change.

The statement also underscores a tension between determinism and free will. Even as we possess the means to learn from the past, some combination of hubris, forgetfulness, and psychological bias seems to thwart genuine progress. Ultimately, Shaw’s aphorism stands as a wry indictment of the frailty of human nature, challenging us to confront honestly the difficulties we face in extracting practical wisdom from our collective past.