"New ideas pass through three periods: 1) It can't be done. 2) It probably can be done, but it's not worth doing. 3) I knew it was a good idea all along!"
About this Quote
Clarke compresses the sociology of innovation into a neat three-act comedy, and the punchline lands where it hurts: not on the dreamers, but on the respectable people whose respectability depends on never being wrong. The structure is doing the work here. Each phase is less about evidence than about ego management. First comes the reflexive policing of reality: "It can't be done" is gatekeeping disguised as pragmatism, a way to protect institutions from embarrassment and protect experts from having to update their mental models.
The second stage is even more revealing because it concedes possibility while still blocking change. "It's not worth doing" is the language of risk committees, budget meetings, and status quo incentives. Clarke understands that resistance usually evolves; when denial collapses, it rebrands as cost-benefit analysis. That shift is the subtext: the debate is rarely about feasibility alone, it's about who pays the price of being early and who gets the credit for being right.
Then the final line flips into satire: "I knew it was a good idea all along!" It's a sharp little indictment of retrospective certainty, the way institutions rewrite their own histories once a disruptive idea becomes inevitable. Clarke, a science fiction writer who watched the 20th century turn speculation into infrastructure (satellites, computing, spaceflight), is naming a pattern he saw repeatedly: radical becomes obvious the moment it becomes profitable, safe, or prestigious.
The intent isn't just to cheer innovation. It's to warn innovators about the emotional weather they'll face, and to expose the quiet cowardice behind "common sense" when the future shows up early.
The second stage is even more revealing because it concedes possibility while still blocking change. "It's not worth doing" is the language of risk committees, budget meetings, and status quo incentives. Clarke understands that resistance usually evolves; when denial collapses, it rebrands as cost-benefit analysis. That shift is the subtext: the debate is rarely about feasibility alone, it's about who pays the price of being early and who gets the credit for being right.
Then the final line flips into satire: "I knew it was a good idea all along!" It's a sharp little indictment of retrospective certainty, the way institutions rewrite their own histories once a disruptive idea becomes inevitable. Clarke, a science fiction writer who watched the 20th century turn speculation into infrastructure (satellites, computing, spaceflight), is naming a pattern he saw repeatedly: radical becomes obvious the moment it becomes profitable, safe, or prestigious.
The intent isn't just to cheer innovation. It's to warn innovators about the emotional weather they'll face, and to expose the quiet cowardice behind "common sense" when the future shows up early.
Quote Details
| Topic | Technology |
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