"The new always happens against the overwhelming odds of statistical laws and their probability, which for all practical, everyday purposes amounts to certainty; the new therefore always appears in the guise of a miracle"
About this Quote
Arendt is smuggling a radical defense of human agency into the language of math. “Statistical laws” sound neutral, even comforting: the world as a set of regularities you can model, predict, and manage. She grants those laws their everyday authority - probability “amounts to certainty” for practical life - then flips them into a trap. If we treat the likely as inevitable, we quietly convert politics and history into administration: mere trendlines with better funding.
The punch is her insistence that the genuinely new cannot be derived from the spreadsheet. It arrives “against overwhelming odds,” not because history is mystical, but because statistics can only recombine what already exists in the dataset. Novelty, in Arendt’s sense, comes from action: people initiating something that wasn’t demanded by precedent. That’s why it “appears” as a miracle. The miracle isn’t supernatural; it’s epistemic. Our tools for expecting the future are built to miss beginnings.
The subtext is also a warning about modernity’s favorite alibi: “It was inevitable.” In the 20th-century shadow of totalitarianism and mass society, Arendt watched how appeals to historical necessity let individuals abdicate responsibility. Calling the new a miracle doesn’t ask us to be credulous; it asks us to stay alert to contingency - to moments when a system’s probabilities are real, and still not the last word. In her hands, “miracle” is democracy’s stubborn, inconvenient hope: that people can interrupt what looks certain.
The punch is her insistence that the genuinely new cannot be derived from the spreadsheet. It arrives “against overwhelming odds,” not because history is mystical, but because statistics can only recombine what already exists in the dataset. Novelty, in Arendt’s sense, comes from action: people initiating something that wasn’t demanded by precedent. That’s why it “appears” as a miracle. The miracle isn’t supernatural; it’s epistemic. Our tools for expecting the future are built to miss beginnings.
The subtext is also a warning about modernity’s favorite alibi: “It was inevitable.” In the 20th-century shadow of totalitarianism and mass society, Arendt watched how appeals to historical necessity let individuals abdicate responsibility. Calling the new a miracle doesn’t ask us to be credulous; it asks us to stay alert to contingency - to moments when a system’s probabilities are real, and still not the last word. In her hands, “miracle” is democracy’s stubborn, inconvenient hope: that people can interrupt what looks certain.
Quote Details
| Topic | New Beginnings |
|---|---|
| Source | Help us find the source |
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