"The rule on staying alive as a forecaster is to give 'em a number or give 'em a date, but never give 'em both at once"

Forecasting, whether in finance, economics, weather, or other fields, is an inherently uncertain business. Jane Bryant Quinn's quip about survival as a forecaster pinpoints the delicate balance experts must maintain between offering useful guidance and protecting their credibility. The advice to “give 'em a number or give 'em a date, but never give 'em both at once” underscores the pitfalls of specificity.

Numbers, such as specific price targets, growth rates, or projected values, offer clarity and help people plan. Dates, timelines, or time horizons tell audiences when to expect events. Yet when a forecaster combines a precise outcome with an exact deadline, accountability skyrockets. If the forecast doesn’t pan out exactly as promised, the expert’s reputation suffers. By giving only one dimension, either a target without a timing, or a date without a specific figure, the forecaster provides valuable information while maintaining plausible deniability. If the event doesn’t unfold as suggested, reasoning can be made: perhaps the outcome was right but happened later, or the timing was right but the magnitude differed.

This principle reflects a broader understanding of uncertainty and probability in complex systems. The future is influenced by countless variables beyond anyone’s control. The public, yearning for certainty, often presses experts for both the “what” and the “when.” But those who have survived in professions where predictions are required have learned the wisdom of restraint. Vagueness, rather than laziness, is often a protective strategy borne of humility before unpredictability.

By separating numbers from dates, forecasters cushion themselves against error, maintaining influence and trust even as events unfold differently than anticipated. The saying is, therefore, not just self-deprecating humor, it’s practical advice on managing expectations and sustaining authority in a world where the future is never guaranteed.