"There are known knowns. These are things we know that we know. There are known unknowns. That is to say, there are things that we know we don't know. But there are also unknown unknowns. There are things we don't know we don't know"

Donald Rumsfeld's statement explores the nature of knowledge and uncertainty, dividing information into categories based on our awareness and understanding. The first category, “known knowns,” refers to the facts and truths that are clearly understood, information within our grasp and comfort zone. They are the foundation of decisions and actions, forming the basis of what can be planned or assessed with confidence. For example, a pilot knows the basic laws of flight and the controls for the airplane; these are known, dependable elements.

The second category, “known unknowns,” addresses recognized gaps in our knowledge. These are uncertainties that can be pinpointed: an engineer may realize they lack information about the weather forecast for a flight. Though this knowledge is missing, its absence is noticed, enabling people to take steps to gather the required information or make contingency plans. Awareness of what is not known allows organizations and individuals to manage risk, prioritize research, and prepare for foreseeable problems.

The most profound are the “unknown unknowns,” which represent the limits of awareness itself. These are factors, risks, or facts that exist but escape our notice entirely. There is no way to anticipate or compensate for them directly because their very existence is beyond our current understanding. Unknown unknowns pose significant challenges because they often underlie surprise events, such as unexpected technological breakthroughs or crises arising from previously unimaginable conditions. Their influence can be vast, making adaptability, flexibility, and openness to learning crucial qualities in leadership and decision-making.

Together, these categories suggest a layered approach to knowledge: confidence in the known, strategic management of what’s acknowledged as mysterious, and humility in the face of what lies beyond current comprehension. Recognizing all three types encourages proactive learning and fosters a mindset prepared for both foreseeable and unforeseeable challenges.