"Of the twenty-two civilizations that have appeared in history, nineteen of them collapsed when they reached the moral state the United States is in now"

Arnold J. Toynbee’s observation about the fate of civilizations highlights a cyclical pattern of rise and decline in human societies. He suggests that the moral condition of a nation, its collective ethics, values, and sense of responsibility, plays a decisive role in its long-term survival. When Toynbee refers to the “moral state the United States is in now,” he is not merely speaking about isolated acts of corruption or vice, but rather a deeper, systemic erosion of virtue and collective purpose that tends to emerge as civilizations age and accumulate wealth, power, and technological advancement.

Toynbee’s cyclical theory of history argues that civilizations do not fall simply due to external invasions or economic collapse, but from within, when their “creative minority” loses touch with its guiding vision and the wider population becomes complacent or disillusioned. With rising prosperity, societies often face temptations of hedonism, materialism, and cynicism, which undermine the solidarity and moral discipline that originally fueled their growth. In such a state, laws and institutions can continue to function, but the underlying ethical foundations are hollowed out. This process is rarely obvious in the moment; it is gradual, manifesting through increasing self-interest, apathy toward common goods, decay of public trust, and a decline in meaningful participation in civic life.

By referencing the United States, Toynbee draws a sobering parallel between contemporary societal trends, perhaps the fragmentation, loss of shared values, or contentious public discourse, and the warning signs observed in past civilizations before their decline. His assessment is not only a critique but also an implicit call to introspection: a reminder that technological prowess or military might cannot substitute for moral vitality. If past civilizations have faltered at this critical juncture, then renewal or reform of the moral core is essential to avoid repeating their fate. The lesson is clear: civilizations endure not just through power or wealth, but through preservation and reinvigoration of their ethical foundations.