"The best way to predict the future is to invent it"
About this Quote
Kay’s line is Silicon Valley confidence distilled into a single, slightly mischievous dare. “Predict the future” is the language of forecasters, executives, and pundits who treat tomorrow like a weather report: complicated, probabilistic, and ultimately outside your control. Kay swaps that posture for a maker’s ethic. If the future is built out of tools, interfaces, institutions, and incentives, then the people who design those things aren’t guessing at what comes next - they’re writing the first draft.
The intent isn’t motivational-poster optimism so much as a practical rebuke to passive analysis. Kay, a pioneering computer scientist tied to the Xerox PARC era and object-oriented thinking, came up in a moment when computing was shifting from back-room calculation to personal, interactive worlds. In that context, “invent” means more than gadgets; it’s about shaping the very categories people will use to think and work. Create the medium, and you don’t just anticipate behavior - you channel it.
The subtext carries a quiet warning: prediction is often a way to launder authority without responsibility. If you’re “predicting,” you can be wrong without being accountable. If you’re inventing, the consequences are yours. It also exposes a politics of technology: the future isn’t inevitable; it’s negotiated by those with the skill, capital, and permission to build. Kay’s aphorism flatters builders, yes, but it also names the uncomfortable truth that our “future” tends to look like the ambitions of whoever got there first.
The intent isn’t motivational-poster optimism so much as a practical rebuke to passive analysis. Kay, a pioneering computer scientist tied to the Xerox PARC era and object-oriented thinking, came up in a moment when computing was shifting from back-room calculation to personal, interactive worlds. In that context, “invent” means more than gadgets; it’s about shaping the very categories people will use to think and work. Create the medium, and you don’t just anticipate behavior - you channel it.
The subtext carries a quiet warning: prediction is often a way to launder authority without responsibility. If you’re “predicting,” you can be wrong without being accountable. If you’re inventing, the consequences are yours. It also exposes a politics of technology: the future isn’t inevitable; it’s negotiated by those with the skill, capital, and permission to build. Kay’s aphorism flatters builders, yes, but it also names the uncomfortable truth that our “future” tends to look like the ambitions of whoever got there first.
Quote Details
| Topic | Vision & Strategy |
|---|---|
| Source | Later attribution: Alan Kay (Alan Kay) modern compilation
Evidence:
design quotes 1970s the best way to predict the future is to invent it alan kay |
| Featured | This quote was our Quote of the Day on February 15, 2025 |
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