"The only peace that can be made with a dictator is once that must be based on deterrence. For today, the dictator may be your friend, but tomorrow he will need you as an enemy"

Natan Sharansky’s assertion underscores the inherently unstable nature of relationships formed with authoritarian leaders. Dictators, by their very nature, maintain power through control, suppression, and manipulation. They frequently operate on self-interest, calculating each alliance or enmity based on what best consolidates their power at any given moment. Friendship with such a leader is therefore always provisional. Today, it may be beneficial for the dictator to regard a particular country, group, or person as an ally, perhaps to access resources, gain political legitimacy, or isolate a mutual adversary. Yet, these alliances come with no guarantee of longevity or loyalty. When circumstances shift and new needs arise, that “friendship” may be expediently cast aside, replaced by hostility or betrayal.

The quote highlights that peace with a dictator cannot be rooted in trust or shared values, as these leaders do not typically act from a philosophy of enduring partnership or goodwill. Instead, sustained peace depends upon deterrence, a clear demonstration that aggression or betrayal will incur consequences unacceptable to the dictator. Strength, readiness, and clear boundaries are the true guarantors of coexistence with authoritarian regimes. Only when a dictator calculates that the costs of hostility outweigh the benefits of aggression or duplicity will a predictable peace be possible.

Furthermore, the observation that “tomorrow, he will need you as an enemy” sheds light on the psychological and political utility of enmity for a dictator. Having an external foe can be a powerful tool for uniting internal factions, justifying repression, or distracting from domestic failures. The whim to switch roles, from friendship to antagonism, may serve the interests of the dictator more than any commitment to past agreements.

Ultimately, Sharansky’s insight is a caution to democracies: base their foreign strategies on realistic assessments of self-serving regimes, prioritize credible deterrence, and never lull themselves into complacency by mistaking convenience for genuine harmony.